4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 11

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model