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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 31

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete short right to 15-S.Sims (48-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP