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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 51
New York Jets 20 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(1:21) 26-L.Bell left end to WAS 48 for 3 yards (93-Jon.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+0.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK
-1.70 EP
- 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.61 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
