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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 31

New York Jets 34 – Washington Commanders 11

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 9-S.Ficken 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model