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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 6 at the 50
New York Jets 6 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(6:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.96 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.72 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -3.01 EP
KICK
-1.79 EP
- 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT
-0.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
