4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 86

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to NYJ 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 38 for 12 yards (30-T.Apke; 45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model