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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to CLE 24, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 35 for 11 yards (92-O.Adeniyi). PIT-92-O.Adeniyi was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model