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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
Thursday 2019-11-14 · 20:20 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT
49.0%
CLE
51.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): -0.019 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
–
CLE 21
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PIT

Roosevelt Nix RB Out Knee
Benny Snell RB Out Knee
Ryan Switzer WR Out Back
Joe Haden CB Questionable Illness
Anthony Chickillo LB Questionable Rib

CLE

Eric Murray S Out Knee
Olivier Vernon DE Out Knee
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Knee
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 7
–
CLE 21

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:13 TD CLE (11:13) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 09:59 TD CLE (9:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-93-D.McCullers, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PIT 0 – CLE 13
  • Q3 05:45 TD PIT (5:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 38-J.Samuels for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 14
  • Q4 05:33 TD CLE (5:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 89-S.Carlson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. PIT 7 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to CLE 24, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 35 for 11 yards (92-O.Adeniyi). PIT-92-O.Adeniyi was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 82%

    (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%

    (4:13) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CLE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 5 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 22 for 10 yards (29-S.Redwine). PIT-18-D.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:04) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 34%

    (6:43) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 89-V.McDonald [65-L.Ogunjobi].

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 29%

    (5:39) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-47-C.Hughlett, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 80%

    (2:36) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:23) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-20-T.Thomas, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 20. Penalty causes Touchback

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (8:18) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%

    (:01) 4-A.Seibert 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

    (13:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Holton (92-C.Thomas) [53-J.Schobert].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:25) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PIT 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 12 for 8 yards (29-S.Redwine).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:24) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CLE 27, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%

    (1:47) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 20-C.Sutton.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 40-T.Brooks-James up the middle to PIT 24 for -4 yards.