Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- PIT defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Baker Mayfield (CLE): -0.019 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CLE offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.001 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
PIT
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:13 TD CLE (11:13) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CLE 6
- Q2 09:59 TD CLE (9:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-93-D.McCullers, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PIT 0 – CLE 13
- Q3 05:45 TD PIT (5:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 38-J.Samuels for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 14
- Q4 05:33 TD CLE (5:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 89-S.Carlson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. PIT 7 – CLE 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to CLE 24, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 35 for 11 yards (92-O.Adeniyi). PIT-92-O.Adeniyi was injured during the play. He is Out.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 82%
(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 41%
(4:13) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EPp(convert) 69%
(1:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CLE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 5 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 22 for 10 yards (29-S.Redwine). PIT-18-D.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:04) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 34%
(6:43) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 89-V.McDonald [65-L.Ogunjobi].
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 29%
(5:39) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-47-C.Hughlett, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 80%
(2:36) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(11:23) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-20-T.Thomas, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 20. Penalty causes Touchback
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%
(8:18) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%
(:01) 4-A.Seibert 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%
(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Holton (92-C.Thomas) [53-J.Schobert].
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:25) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PIT 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 12 for 8 yards (29-S.Redwine).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 61%
(10:24) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CLE 27, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%
(6:43) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%
(1:47) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 20-C.Sutton.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 72 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 25%
(:08) (Shotgun) 40-T.Brooks-James up the middle to PIT 24 for -4 yards.
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