4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 89-V.McDonald [65-L.Ogunjobi].

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.84 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model