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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model