Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-20-T.Thomas, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 20. Penalty causes Touchback

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.88 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model