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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model