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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) 4-A.Seibert 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model