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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Holton (92-C.Thomas) [53-J.Schobert].

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model