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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CLE 27, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.90 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP