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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model