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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 40-T.Brooks-James up the middle to PIT 24 for -4 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.25 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -0.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP