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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.29 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP