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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model