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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CLE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 5 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP