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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 15 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model