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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CAR
28.2%
NO
71.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.136 vs Kyle Allen (CAR) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • NO defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CAR

Dennis Daley G Questionable Groin
Greg Little T Questionable Knee
Ross Cockrell CB Questionable Quadricep

NO

Deonte Harty WR Out Hamstring
Zach Line RB Out Knee
Andrus Peat G Out Forearm
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 31
–
NO 34

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:47 TD NO (10:47) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 05:18 TD NO (5:18) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 13, YAC 0 CAR 0 – NO 13
  • Q1 03:16 TD CAR (3:16) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 12-D.Moore for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 49, YAC 2 CAR 6 – NO 14
  • Q2 13:39 FG NO (13:39) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CAR 6 – NO 17
  • Q2 08:13 FG CAR (8:13) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 9 – NO 17
  • Q2 00:03 TD CAR (:03) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 682 CAR 15 – NO 17
  • Q3 11:24 TD NO (11:24) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-G.McCoy]. Pass 20, YAC 0 CAR 15 – NO 23
  • Q3 08:41 FG CAR (8:41) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 18 – NO 24
  • Q3 05:15 TD NO (5:15) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 CAR 18 – NO 30
  • Q3 01:33 TD CAR (1:33) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-74-G.Little was injured during the play. His return is Probable. CAR 24 – NO 31
  • Q4 09:28 TD CAR (9:28) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 2, YAC 0 CAR 30 – NO 31
  • Q4 00:03 FG NO (:03) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CAR 31 – NO 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 41-A.Kamara to NO 23 for -2 yards (53-B.Burns).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray. New Orleans challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 28-R.Gaulden MUFFS catch, touched at CAR 27, RECOVERED by NO-48-J.Gray at CAR 27. 48-J.Gray to CAR 27 for no gain (42-C.Jones).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (13:39) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%

    (8:13) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to CAR 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Moore to CAR 32 for no gain (53-A.Klein).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to NO 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-56-J.Carter.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 71%

    (8:41) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NO 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (9:28) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 2, YAC 0

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (25-E.Reid). Penalty on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.