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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 24 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NO 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model