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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 31 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 43 for -2 yards (25-E.Reid). Penalty on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model