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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 10

Carolina Panthers 31 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model