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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 26

New England Patriots 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 2-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model