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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DAL
41.5%
NE
58.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.365 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Tom Brady (NE) +0.108 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.284 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

DAL 20
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DAL

Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Illness
Donovan Wilson S Questionable Illness
Connor Williams G Questionable Knee

NE

Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Tom Brady QB Questionable right Elbow
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Illness
Patrick Chung S Questionable Heel
Phillip Dorsett WR Questionable Concussion
Nate Ebner S Questionable Ankle
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Shoulder
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin
Mohamed Sanu WR Questionable Ankle
John Simon DE Questionable Elbow
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 9
–
NE 13

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:50 TD NE (:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-N.Harry for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 75th different career TD target, extends NFL record (Testaverde 70). NE 12-Brady 15th of season, NFL record for player after their 42nd birthday. DAL 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 12:51 FG NE (12:51) 2-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. DAL 0 – NE 10
  • Q2 08:40 FG DAL (8:40) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NE 10
  • Q2 02:31 FG DAL (2:31) 2-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – NE 10
  • Q4 09:37 FG NE (9:37) 2-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9-Folk 1,101 career pts, 49th all-time. DAL 6 – NE 13
  • Q4 06:08 FG DAL (6:08) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 9 – NE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:48) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NE 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-53-J.March-Lillard.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 19%

    (11:22) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to DAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-34-R.Burkhead.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (7:44) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (5:04) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:45) 6-C.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 18-M.Slater, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, RECOVERED by NE-43-N.Ebner at DAL 12.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (12:51) 2-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 76%

    (8:40) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 76%

    (6:51) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (2:31) 2-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 72%

    (:04) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:22) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to NE 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to DAL 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:29) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to NE 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 83%

    (9:37) 2-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9-Folk 1,101 career pts, 49th all-time.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (6:08) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 42%

    (2:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to DAL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 45 for 20 yards (27-J.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-A.Cooper.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (:05) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right.