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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 58

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP