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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to NE 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model