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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 58

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to DAL 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model