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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 51

New England Patriots 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to DAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-34-R.Burkhead.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model