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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 41

New England Patriots 13 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to DAL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.97 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.45 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP