Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 64

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 28 for 12 yards (97-J.Attaochu, 19-F.Brown). Return credited to BUF 16 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-57-L.Alexander, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model