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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

DEN
35.5%
BUF
64.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph
  • BUF offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.013 vs Brandon Allen (DEN) -0.064 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DEN

Cyrus Jones CB Out Illness
Justin Hollins LB Out Hamstring
Jeff Heuerman TE Questionable Knee
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee
Joseph Jones LB Questionable Foot
Ronald Leary G Questionable Shoulder
Connor McGovern C Questionable Back
Tim Patrick WR Questionable Shoulder
Dalton Risner G Questionable Ankle

BUF

Siran Neal S Out Concussion
Ty Nsekhe T Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 3
–
BUF 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:15 FG BUF (1:15) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. DEN 0 – BUF 3
  • Q2 08:12 FG BUF (8:12) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. DEN 0 – BUF 6
  • Q3 13:02 TD BUF (13:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-C.Beasley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-A.Johnson]. Caught at DEN 7, slanting slightlly from right. DEN 0 – BUF 12
  • Q3 07:45 FG DEN (7:45) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 3 – BUF 13
  • Q4 11:14 TD BUF (11:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Brown. Receiver ruled out of end zone on catch. Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 15-J.Brown for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Reception made 7 yds. into end zone. DEN 3 – BUF 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 19 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 33%

    (10:07) 6-C.Wadman punts 34 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (1:15) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 11. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 15 for 4 yards (42-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on BUF-57-L.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 15.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (8:12) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 28 for 12 yards (97-J.Attaochu, 19-F.Brown). Return credited to BUF 16 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-57-L.Alexander, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 16.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 78%

    (7:45) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 24%

    (5:41) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to DEN 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:07) 6-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to BUF 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 42 for 17 yards (36-T.Marshall).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 20%

    (2:37) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to DEN 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:02) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to BUF 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 45 for 8 yards (54-J.Watson, 43-J.Jones).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 41%

    (13:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to DEN 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 19 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:06) 6-C.Wadman punts 56 yards to BUF 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at DEN 46 for 12 yards (36-T.Marshall). PENALTY on DEN-26-I.Yiadom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 46.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:18) 6-C.Wadman punts 13 yards to DEN 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 41%

    (8:01) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to DEN 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:15) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to BUF 39, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.