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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 80

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 6-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to BUF 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 42 for 17 yards (36-T.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.92 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model