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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to DEN 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.74 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP