Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 44

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 6-C.Wadman punts 34 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.18 EP
78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.72 EP

KICK -1.59 EP

33% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
67% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model