Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 98

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 6-C.Wadman punts 56 yards to BUF 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at DEN 46 for 12 yards (36-T.Marshall). PENALTY on DEN-26-I.Yiadom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 46.

The Three Options

GO -4.35 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.70 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 98, worth -6.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model