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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 20 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to DEN 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP