Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 90

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 20

(7:15) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to BUF 39, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.17 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model