4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model