Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 60

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 11. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 15 for 4 yards (42-C.Kreiter). PENALTY on BUF-57-L.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.48 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model