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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to SF 28 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.00 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model