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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 20:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

GB
45.2%
SF
54.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.310 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • GB on 7 more days rest than SF
  • GB defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.147 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.173 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

GB

Cole Madison G Out Knee
Robert Tonyan TE Questionable Hip
Dan Vitale RB Questionable Knee

SF

Dee Ford DE Out Quadricep
Joe Staley T Out Finger
Matt Breida RB Doubtful Ankle
Robbie Gould K Doubtful right Quadricep
George Kittle TE Questionable Knee
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Shoulder
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 8
–
SF 37

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:07 TD SF (13:07) 26-T.Coleman right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 03:17 FG SF (3:17) 5-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 10
  • Q2 02:59 FG SF (2:59) 5-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 01:05 TD SF (1:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at GB 29. 29-yac GB 0 – SF 19
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 5-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 23
  • Q3 03:55 TD GB (3:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 6. 6-yac GB 6 – SF 23
  • Q3 03:05 TD SF (3:05) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at GB 26. 26-yac GB 8 – SF 29
  • Q4 05:04 TD SF (5:04) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 8 – SF 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:39) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to SF 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 38 for 10 yards (30-J.Williams).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 16 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 38%

    (8:42) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to GB 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 27-T.Smith.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:05) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SF 49, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-45-D.Vitale.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (3:17) 5-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:25) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to SF 37, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 37 for no gain (37-J.Jackson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to GB 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 27-T.Smith.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

    (11:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to SF 28 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 99-D.Buckner).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:21) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SF 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 32 for 4 yards (37-J.Jackson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (2:59) 5-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:02) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to SF 39, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:33) 6-J.Scott punts 33 yards to SF 48, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to SF 33 for 15 yards (33-T.Moore). Caught at GB 47. 20-yac

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 81%

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at SF 31 for -4 yards (sack split by 29-J.Tartt and 91-A.Armstead).