Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(6:21) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SF 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 32 for 4 yards (37-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model