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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to SF 33 for 15 yards (33-T.Moore). Caught at GB 47. 20-yac

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.00 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model