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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 27

Green Bay Packers 8 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at SF 31 for -4 yards (sack split by 29-J.Tartt and 91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP