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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime - 4.66s

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model