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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Thursday 2019-11-21 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

IND
45.0%
HOU
55.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 23
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

IND

Marlon Mack RB Out Hand
Shakial Taylor CB Out Ankle
Khari Willis S Out Concussion
Parris Campbell WR Out Hand
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Thumb
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Ankle
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Calf
Rock Ya-Sin CB Questionable Ankle

HOU

Mike Adams S Out Concussion
Lonnie Johnson CB Out Ankle
Justin Reid S Out Concussion
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Back
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 17
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:46 FG HOU (13:46) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. IND 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 04:33 TD IND (4:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – HOU 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG IND (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – HOU 10
  • Q3 05:44 TD IND (5:44) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – HOU 10
  • Q3 02:47 FG HOU (2:47) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. IND 17 – HOU 13
  • Q4 12:41 TD HOU (12:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:53) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime - 4.66s

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:40) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to IND 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-34-T.Jones. Punt Hangtime - 4.65s

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 46 for 13 yards (26-C.Geathers). Punt Hangtime - 4.47s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

    (13:46) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter to HOU 34 for 10 yards (58-B.Okereke; 26-C.Geathers). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), recovered by HOU-54-J.Martin at HOU 35. Punt Hangtime - 4.5s

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 71%

    (11:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 12-K.Stills.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

    (2:47) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-42-R.Milligan. Punt Hangtime - 4.32s

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%

    (10:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime - 4.28s

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:35) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to IND 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. Punt Hangtime - 4.94s

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (3:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to HOU 41 for 6 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 69%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left.