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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-42-R.Milligan. Punt Hangtime - 4.32s

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.88 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model